We shall prevail !

Discussion in 'THE Gretsch Discussion Forum' started by pilgrim, Mar 16, 2020.

  1. Tony65x55

    Tony65x55 Gretschified

    Age:
    64
    Sep 23, 2011
    The 'Shwa, Ontario, Canada
    I agree with you, my friend. I've been to Aus four times and NZ once. Traveled from Adelaide to Brisbane and have spent a couple of months is Aus. I have to say, it is the closest country to Canada I have ever been in. While the geography is very different, the people aren't and it feels like home to me. Same humour, same attitudes, far more similarities than differences.

    It's a wonderful place full of wonderful people and I look forward to my next trip there.

    NZ was amazing too. I traveled the length of the south island from Christchurch to the very south. Beautiful place. It was like someone shrunk Canada by compressing Nova Scotia to British Columbia so it was only several hours across. Breathtaking!
     
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  2. Good morning, Mark

     
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  3. my 6 month old granddaughters name...:)
     
    Tony65x55 likes this.
  4. Synchro

    Synchro The artist formerly known as: Synchro Staff Member

    Jun 2, 2008
    Tucson
    Admin Post
    Ok, now I get it. I had forgotten that Jimmy Stewart was in that movie.
     
  5. Bertotti

    Bertotti Friend of Fred

    Jul 20, 2017
    South Dakota
    You guys talking about the one where his plane is crashed in the dessert?
     
  6. Rusty Silver

    Rusty Silver Gretschie

    In Italy 80.589 cases and 8.215 deaths. In USA 92.932 cases and 365 deaths. Something sounds wrong.
     
    Tadhg likes this.
  7. Waxhead

    Waxhead Country Gent

    Aug 30, 2014
    Australia
    Great - and I agree with you on all :D

    With 2 friends I once bought a camper van in LA and then drove up US west coast into Canada.
    Then spent 6 months travelling from Vancouver Is to Rockies up to Jasper then east across Canada to Winnipeg, Thunder Bay. SS Marie, Toronto, Montreal, Q City, and down thru Vermont. Sold the Van in NYC.

    Mainly hiking, mountaineering, canoeing and staying in National Parks along the way.
    Likewise, Canadians were wonderful everywhere we went.
    Made many friends including a long time girlfriend from Salmon Arm BC who later came to Australia and stayed.

    I then returned 7 years later for skiing holiday in BC.
    Always remember Canada as having the best lakes in the world, best powder skiing, the best bears and best Salmon. The beer is good too :)
     
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  8. Tony65x55

    Tony65x55 Gretschified

    Age:
    64
    Sep 23, 2011
    The 'Shwa, Ontario, Canada
    Sounds like an amazing trip and six months is cramming it in. What a great life experience! Many Canadians have not seen as much of Canada as you have. I'm glad you were treated well but not surprised - Canadians are pretty cool. I'm very glad you came - come back and I'll buy you beer!
     
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  9. Synchro

    Synchro The artist formerly known as: Synchro Staff Member

    Jun 2, 2008
    Tucson
    Admin Post
    From what I've heard, it's ravaged some retirement homes and killed many who were weakened by age or infirmity. According to what I've read, there are 101,000 cases in the US with 1,581 deaths.
     
  10. wabash slim

    wabash slim Gretschified

    Age:
    70
    Feb 10, 2010
    lafayette in
    Remade a few years ago using the same type of aircraft, a C-119 Flying Boxcar. They were still in use when I was in the Air Force.
    ------------------------------------------------
    Sheep jokes! People have been telling jokes about their neighboring countries since countries were first invented. Babylonians told jokes about Persians.

    As to sheep jokes, the standard punchline is---"Sheep Lie!"
     
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  11. Synchro

    Synchro The artist formerly known as: Synchro Staff Member

    Jun 2, 2008
    Tucson
    Admin Post
    An ugly but useful plane.

    I agree about the sheep jokes. Keep in mind, however, that the Persians knocked Babylon over pretty quickly. Maybe it was payback. :)
     
  12. Bertotti

    Bertotti Friend of Fred

    Jul 20, 2017
    South Dakota
    We have a joke here I heard in Rapid City,
    What are the three lies of a Wyoming cowboy? I won that belt buckle, the truck is paid for, the sheep really was stuck in the fence!
     
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  13. wabash slim

    wabash slim Gretschified

    Age:
    70
    Feb 10, 2010
    lafayette in
    C-119s were used for one of the early versions of gunships, like Puff the Magic Dragon. Take off the big clamshell doors, stick a couple of Gatling guns out the back, and two more out the side, and you've got Death From Above. Much brrrrt.
     
    Bertotti likes this.
  14. Tadhg

    Tadhg Gretschie

    151
    Aug 8, 2019
    Qld - Australia
    Numbers in the US might have some more deaths, but I think a significant part of it is wider diagnosis. That's certainly the case in Australia. 3000 cases, 9 deaths.

    I'm confident that both Italy and the US haven't tested as widely per capita as Australia. Very confident. We've very few ICU cases (only 26 to yesterday morning). We're running - currently - at 0.1% ICU cases against diagnosed (tested) cases, and 0.03% death rate. Against a 10% death rate in Italy, and 1.5% death rate in the US (which definitely has lower testing rates than Australia). It's the same disease, I really don't see why Italy would be nearly 6 times worse than the US and 100 times worse than Australia. Well, I can see one reason (ICU's being stressed beyond capacity, so the standard of care lowers), but it shouldn't be that far gone. Because the better measure, which takes out the overstressing of the health system in the mortality rate, is the percentage of cases entering the ICU. Australia is still well below the other nations.

    I'm confident that we haven't caught/tested every case in Australia. I don't think that's possible. But I'm confident that we're catching more than other areas that haven't tested as widely, because that would explain the significant differences in ratios between cases/ICU/deaths. However, the raw reporting of nothing but diagnosed cases and then comparing the numbers to Italy has a lot of people very worried down here... That's not all bad - it means people are more likely to adhere to social distancing requirements, but it means those whose natural tendencies would be to adhere to that advice are suddenly certain we're all going to die. Because we all live on a scale between hypochondria and anosognosia (i.e. believe we're sick and dying or believing we're fine when we're not). Public health messages that get the devil-may-care anogosnosiacs to listen and start complying with demands set for everyone's well being are likely to send hypochondriacs into fits of anxiety.
     
  15. Bertotti

    Bertotti Friend of Fred

    Jul 20, 2017
    South Dakota
    People in the states don't run around greeting people with kisses on checks. Notice my name, family and friend get-togethers with a bunch of Italians was a check kissing festival. I opted out of and that was really frowned upon. I relented as a kid to agree to a hug. But in Italy how many still greet this way and as I understand they all still have big get-togethers. This virus wouldn't slow that down initially until people and friends actually started dieing. Then and only then would they consider having small gatherings but I doubt you could get them to stop completely.
     
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  16. Synchro

    Synchro The artist formerly known as: Synchro Staff Member

    Jun 2, 2008
    Tucson
    Admin Post
    One other thing to keep in mind with regard to the statistics is that the percentage of people that die is measured against the number of people diagnosed. If you had a population of 100,000 people and tested the death rate would be much lower, because your testing would identify people that had the infection but were either asymptomatic or had very mild symptoms.

    OTOH, if you have a population with limited testing resources which must be reserved for people with significant symptoms, then the number of diagnosed cases will not include the less afflicted victims of the disease and will skew the results accordingly.

    I claim no medical knowledge, but I have done a bit of analysis in my day and I expect that the true rate of lethality will probably be lower than what is currently apparent. We are working with a very incomplete data set. That is not to say that the disease should not be taken seriously, but I think that they will get a handle on it sooner, rather than later.

    Earlier today, I had a conversation with a coworker in a different country. He mentioned the situation in New York City and I explained to him that could not happen in much of the country. Wyoming, Montana, the Dakotas and many other areas in the US are naturally resistant to epidemics. I have spoken to two people face to face in the last week, and I saw my neighbor walking in his driveway. That’s it! U less you literally stayed indoors continually, that would not be the experience of people in densely populated areas. Diseases flourish in more densely populated areas.

    We see this in the US. New York is the largest city and it has the largest problem. The last I’ve heard, they are considering changing the guidelines to reduce disruption in sparsely populated areas. It really doesn’t make sense to have the same responses in Sheridan Wyoming as in NYC.
     
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  17. TV the Wired Turtle

    TV the Wired Turtle Gretschified

    Jul 25, 2009
    so cal
    best Jimmy stewart flick is The Man Who shot Liberty Valance!! :)
     
  18. Tadhg

    Tadhg Gretschie

    151
    Aug 8, 2019
    Qld - Australia
    Totally agree, and that's a great way to transmit the virus. But that doesn't guarantee a higher mortality rate, only a (potentially) higher transmission rate.

    Your top two paragraphs are exactly what I was trying to clarify with my analysis. I believe the Australian numbers show a much higher detection rate of asymptomatic people compared to the US, and the US is another order of magnitude better than Italy.

    Italy was taken completely off guard, I've no idea how the virus got to and through Italy so quickly. I don't mentally associate Italy (or Iran!) with large contact with China, whereas here in Australia we have HUGE numbers of Chinese uni students, and large scale trade with China. The US would be more similar to Australia in terms of contact with China. So I think it's just the shock of contact and how quickly it managed to get through the population there.

    Your line about working with an incomplete data set is exactly on the money. I think we've got a better dataset in Australia - due to the wide scale yet targeted testing - than most other places, and that's indicated by having a lower ICU rate compared to positive test rate than anywhere else. I'm sure that if the tests were as widespread per capita, as well as equally well targeted when appropriate (we still import 2/3 of our cases, we don't have widescale community transmission), we'd see similar results in most countries. Lots and lots of asymptomatic positives, to make the ratios closer to what we have here.


    Given Australia's 86% urbanized (I've seen 89% claimed, which would put us in the top 10 most urbanized countries in the world), the situation in regional areas is similar to Wyoming, Montana and the Dakotas. It's not a natural place for an epidemic. However, given the remote nature of these places, they also don't have great medical resources. So shires/council areas west of here have had gathering sizes limited to 10 for a fortnight, because that's the capacity of their healthcare system.

    So now that the 'grey nomads' - retired people with caravans who travel north for the winter - have started fleeing suburbia in order to escape the virus and find winter warmth, people are beginning to panic. There's reports of people slashing the tyres on caravans. That's clearly misdirected concern - if you slash tyres, you're keeping people IN your area, rather than forcing them to move on! But it's interesting how these things are perceived.
     
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  19. Bertotti

    Bertotti Friend of Fred

    Jul 20, 2017
    South Dakota
    @Synchro yes Sioux Falls is our biggest city but as of noon yesterday that city had 18 confirmed cases 51 in the state with over 2000 negative results tester and over 20 recovered. Sioux Falls and SD economy is virtually at a standstill, no corona virus parties and everyone is being pretty cautious. But keep in mind weird colds and bugs are a norm here going into and coming out of winter. I wonder if the nature of our area and weather doesn’t help boost our immunities some. The state doesn’t think we will peak for 4-8 weeks yet in cases but our cases are not doubling every day yesterday day we were up 15 from the day before which was closer to a 30% increase.
     
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  20. dankas11

    dankas11 Country Gent

    Age:
    49
    Jul 6, 2014
    Croatia
    It just started in USA. NUmbers will propablly get much much bigger unfortunately. Big first number is because USA did much more tests then Italy at the biggining. Dont forget that Lombardy, (center of epidemy in Italy) has the oldest age percetage in Europe.
     
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